Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 13.010736 14.869753 16.885578 19.231944 21.886141 24.793586 28.218040
2024-10-20 10.076576 12.521787 15.385845 18.980870 23.365424 28.531525 35.072709
2024-10-27 8.166974 10.713947 13.849313 17.979988 23.265161 29.786320 38.427694
2024-11-03 7.306454 10.046697 13.568327 18.405414 24.854099 33.130297 44.529953
2024-11-10 6.649157 9.523281 13.356949 18.815130 26.352883 36.357529 50.599367
2024-11-17 5.909299 8.789333 12.765235 18.616270 26.962190 38.385328 55.142136
2024-11-24 5.244906 8.079887 12.120399 18.251206 27.260833 39.945633 59.072256
2024-12-01 4.789675 7.622115 11.779570 18.267927 28.067402 42.225311 64.115851
2024-12-08 4.470806 7.333228 11.651258 18.568505 29.283396 45.137150 70.222637
2024-12-15 4.150519 7.007894 11.432479 18.699009 30.228834 47.678054 75.898052
2024-12-22 3.802133 6.602788 11.050863 18.533934 30.685964 49.480958 80.522141
2024-12-29 3.563739 6.354796 10.894442 18.705835 31.669165 52.129672 86.588425
2025-01-05 3.415712 6.252624 10.976766 19.288599 33.380050 56.068452 95.018383
2025-01-12 3.140261 5.905083 10.621512 19.110690 33.819423 57.986262 100.289076
2025-01-19 2.752062 5.319771 9.809361 18.080156 32.731740 57.305414 101.177575
2025-01-26 2.636297 5.220378 9.836974 18.515622 34.188864 60.949713 109.550065
2025-02-02 2.525686 5.119893 9.852425 18.925048 35.617677 64.614028 118.147588
2025-02-09 2.338893 4.856538 9.548719 18.725938 35.934698 66.356175 123.467659
2025-02-16 2.147240 4.566280 9.171364 18.358553 35.912184 67.484187 127.739005
2025-02-23 2.020250 4.394129 9.004524 18.375458 36.598286 69.909013 134.468697
2025-03-02 1.936556 4.303141 8.987314 18.677686 37.837696 73.400311 143.330701
2025-03-09 1.839647 4.175899 8.888107 18.808930 38.750885 76.328675 151.288605
2025-03-16 1.718871 3.987011 8.650059 18.642930 39.066810 78.143164 157.224387